Risks inherent in the project that could lead to its failure and result in a total loss for the investor:
Project risks
• The project owner will generate income exclusively through capital gains realized upon the sale of the holding and, if applicable, through dividend payments from the target company. The project owner is therefore entirely dependent on the target company’s business performance, as well as on the performance and marketability of the holding. All risks and adverse developments affecting the target company have an unrestricted impact on the project owner.
• There is a risk that the project owner may misjudge the target company’s future development and, consequently, misjudge the value of the holding at the time of acquisition, which could result in the need for impairment charges on the holding at a later date. The project owner must assess the positive development of the holding based on the information available to it regarding the economic situation, development, and prospects of both the target company and the market environment in which the target company operates. In this respect, this is always a forecast-based decision regarding the future development of the target company and the business model it operates or intends to operate. The target company’s business model may prove to be unsustainable contrary to the project owner’s original assessment. Misjudgments regarding the competitive situation cannot be ruled out either. In addition, operational errors could be made during the (further) implementation of the target company’s business model. Furthermore, at the time the project owner makes the investment decision, unforeseeable circumstances beyond the project owner’s control could impair the target company’s planned development. For example, the economic conditions affecting the target company’s business operations could deteriorate, or the target company could, through no fault of its own, become the target of criminal or terrorist acts or suffer reputational damage. It cannot therefore be ruled out that the target company’s revenue, profitability, and/or enterprise value may not develop as expected, may not be increased, or may even decline in the future. Dividend payments from the target company to the project owner may not be made. Nor can the target company’s insolvency be ruled out.
• Forecasts of the potential sales proceeds for the holding may prove to be inaccurate. Past market or business trends are not a basis or indicator of future developments.
• The project owner will acquire a holding exclusively in the target company and will not build a diversified portfolio of companies. Such a focused investment strategy is riskier and makes the project owner vulnerable to all negative effects of economic, political, regulatory, technical, and industrial market conditions and/or changes affecting the target company.
• The project owner will hold only a minority holding in the target company. As a minority shareholder, the project owner is limited to exercising its statutory shareholder rights. It has no authority to issue instructions to the target company’s management. At the target company’s shareholder meetings, the project owner may be outvoted.
• The target company is still in the startup phase. Investing in a startup is particularly risky because such companies typically have underdeveloped business models that could fail entirely and have significant liquidity needs that may not be met.
• The target company is a globally active provider of payment processing and financial infrastructure software, with a high private market valuation that has fluctuated significantly over time. An investment in such a highly valued, non-listed technology company is particularly risky, as a valuation correction, an intensification of the competitive and regulatory environment, or a slowdown in growth in digital payments cannot be ruled out. The specific risks arising from the business activities of the target company include: intense competition fromestablished payment service providers (including Adyen, PayPal/Braintree, Block (Square), Worldpay, Checkout.com) as well as from big tech companies that are increasingly offering their own payment infrastructure (including Apple, Google, Amazon); dependence on the ongoing acquisition and maintenance of payment services licences in numerous jurisdictions; regulatory risks in connection with tightened requirements for payment service providers and e-money institutions (including PSD2/PSD3, the E-Money Directive) as well as the Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA); risks relating to cybersecurity and the protection of payment and customer data; dependence on the further development of global e-commerce and digital payments volumes; regulatory uncertainties in connection with expansion into new business areas such as stablecoin and crypto infrastructure; concentration risk due to dependence on major customers and platform partners; risks arising from changing interchange fees and payment regulation.
• The target company’s business performance and the demand for its products and services depend entirely on factors over which the project owner has no control. In addition to negative market developments in the specific markets in which the target company operates, these factors include general economic conditions and macroeconomic trends, adverse developments in the capital and financial markets, trade conflicts, tariffs, wars, as well as other developments in the political, social, regulatory, or macroeconomic environment. The extent to which such developments will impact the global economy cannot be conclusively estimated. As in previous years, pandemics and armed conflicts, for example, could continue to lead to supply bottlenecks, high inflation, and sharp declines in global stock markets, thereby negatively impacting the target company’s business. The duration and intensity of the effects of negative developments are uncertain.
• The exact number of outstanding shares of the target company does not necessarily have to be publicly known or fixed at the time of the investment. The target company may issue additional shares – for example in connection with an initial public offering (IPO), the financing of an acquisition, further financing rounds or employee participation programmes. Such issuances lead to dilution of the existing shareholders: the total number of shares increases and the proportion of the company attributable to each existing share decreases accordingly. As a result, the valuation at which the structured investment was entered into may, in retrospect – with reference to the effective valuation per share – prove to be higher and change to the detriment of the investor. In particular, the overall valuation of the target company may rise while the value attributable to an individual share – and thus to the investor’s participation – does not increase to the same extent or may even fall. The indicative valuation figures stated in the documents are therefore not a reliable indicator of the performance of the investor’s participation, which depends on the value per share at the relevant point in time.
• There is a risk that significant competition, both from dynamic startups and large, established market players, will make it difficult for the target company to enter the market and expand its market share, particularly because the target company operates in a highly competitive industry with moderate barriers to entry. Other companies could react more quickly than the target company to new or changing market conditions, engage in more extensive and cost-intensive marketing activities and pursue a more aggressive pricing policy, as well as offer their customers more favorable terms than the target company.
• The marketability of the holding depends on many factors, particularly the performance and future prospects of the target company. There is a risk that no buyers will be found for the holding, or that they will not be found on reasonable terms. This could result in a total loss for investors.
• There is a risk that the target company will not conduct an IPO (Initial Public Offering), i.e., a stock market listing. The reasons for this can be varied and may stem not only from a lack of economic growth or the failure of the target company’s business model, but also from the general economic and geopolitical situation. Failure to go public may result in the inability to sell the holding on a permanent basis.
• In the event of an IPO of the holding, there is a risk that the project owner will not be able to sell the holding until after a so-called lock-up period of 6–12 months has expired, which would prevent profit-taking immediately following the IPO. After the lock-up period expires, the share price of the holding could be significantly below the issue price and also significantly below the project owner’s acquisition price.
• Until the holding is sold on the stock exchange, it is subject to normal market price fluctuations, which may result in the holding being sold only at a loss.
• If an exit via a so-called SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) were to be carried out with respect to the holding, the project owner would receive shares in the SPAC instead of cash proceeds, which the project owner would first have to liquidate—i.e., sell—which may not be possible under certain circumstances.
• The project owner will acquire the holding in a foreign currency (USD). Accordingly, investors who purchase the bonds in euros and receive the profit share and the redemption of the bonds in euros are exposed to exchange rate risks that could result in a significant reduction in the value of the variable profit share and jeopardize the redemption of the bonds at par value.
• Interdependencies in legal, economic and/or personnel terms exist at the level of the project owner in that Sascha Miller is both the managing director of the project owner’s general partner GmbH and a shareholder and managing director of other companies in the Cometum Group through which structuring and distribution fees for this issuance are channelled. Such interdependencies may give rise to conflicts of interest which may result in decisions by the persons and companies concerned that are not taken exclusively in the interests of the project owner and/or the investors, because such decisions are not made as they would be between unrelated third parties, but may also take into account the interests of the persons and companies concerned. Due to these interdependencies, the parties involved may not be able to exercise their management functions with the requisite independence and may subordinate the interests of the project owner to their own personal interests.
• At the project owner level, but particularly at the level of the asset manager who manages the holding on behalf of the project owner, errors on the part of the respective management cannot be entirely ruled out. These errors may lead to unforeseen costs that could have a negative impact on the value of the holding. The project owner’s financial success depends on the asset manager’s administration of the holding. Should this key provider of expertise be lost, there is a risk that the holding can no longer be effectively managed. This may result in necessary decisions regarding the timing and terms of the sale of the holding not being taken, or not being taken in good time, which may lead to a financial disadvantage for investors.